NBA Fantasy Guide Part II, More Brooke & Baker's Dozen

I know I said Part II would be coming on Friday, but I can't get the NBA out of my mind. This post will hone in on what I believe to be the most important aspect of the draft: the 2nd 60. In a standard twelve team league there are 180 players drafted overall. Unless a guy in your league is completely incompetent, each team's first five players are going to be very good. However, it's the next five that often determine whether a team is going to be a contender or pretender. For example, in my league last year I drafted the following players in rounds 6-10: Jamal Crawford, Chris Kaman, Jamaal Tinsley, Rajon Rondo and Udonis Haslem. Although Kaman, Tinsley and Haslem were all shut down late in the year because of injuries, my team was so far out in front it didn't really matter. All three paid huge dividends for the first half of the season.
2nd 60
61. M. Bibby - Star has fallen a bit, but has plenty of talent around him
62. J. Crawford -Likely won't be as good as last year, but should still produce
63. A. Bynum - The sky is the limit for Bynum; Gasol may impact numbers a bit though
64. D. Harris - Needs to shoulder the load with little support in New Jersey,
65. S. Dalembert - Will flourish or flounder with the addition of Brand; I'm betting on the former
66. B. Miller -Getting up there in years, but is coming off a very productive season
67. A. Horford -Natural PF playing C; Will look to build on great rookie year
68. Z. Ilgauskus - Big Z's foot problems seem to be behind him; Solid fantasy performer
69. K. Durant - The lone bright spot on a woeful team
70. J. Terry - Would be ten spots higher if he pulled socks down below his knees
71. L. Deng - Despite an off year he still received the big bucks; No threat from 3-pt land
72. B. Gordon - Phenomenal one night and then vanishes the next...Mr. Inconsistent
73. R. Alston - Has developed into one of the twelve best point guards in the league
74. R. Felton - Distributes the ball well, but shooting percentage hurts ranking
75. J. O'Neal - Can't seem to stay healthy, but fresh start in Toronto could motivate him
76. K. Hinrich - Awful last year, but has too much talent for a repeat performance
77. A. Biedrins - Capable of big games, but Nellie often jerks with his playing time
78. L. Aldridge - Should continue to improve into one of the top young power forwards in league
79. G. Oden -Will legs hold up the whole year? If so, rebound and block numbers will be huge
80. A. Thornton - Nique Jr. showed signs of stardom late last season
81. Z. Randolph - Virtual lock for 18 pts/ 10 rbs a night when motivated
82. R. Rondo - On the verge of joining the elite point guards; needs to improve range
83. T.J. Ford - If he can stay on the court, Ford capable of averaging 10 assists
84. L. Barbosa - Ranking hurt by Suns going to a slower pace
85. M. Beasley - Talented rookie will be going toe-to-toe with Mayo for ROY
86. C. Maggette - Really came into his own last season; Big year a real possibility
87. Mo Williams - A gunner...er...shooting guard in a point guard's body; draft with caution
88. R. Hamilton - On the downside of his career, but can still shoot the rock
89. T. Parker - Limited 3-pt range hurts ranking, but Parker among the league's elite point guards
90. Ma. Williams - Should make the leap this year and average at least 16 pts and 8 rbs per game
91. T. Prince - Better team basketball player than fantasy player; Still brings a lot to the table
92. R. Foye - Starting point guard has all the tools and a lot of weapons around him
93. O.J. Mayo - Will be the second option on a putrid team; Possible ROY barring injury
94. D. Rose - Love his game; Remains to be seen if he can hit a shot outside 16 ft. though
95. J. Salmons - Artest trade boosted value considerably; Could average 18 pts/6 rbs and 6 assts
96. B. Udrih - Landed a big contract and will have a golden opportunity with a young team
97. D. Lee - Will Randolph steal a lot of his rebounds and value? Only time will tell
98. R. Bell - Still a decent defender, but is slowing with age
99. J. Moon - The numbers are there when Sam Mitchell gives him 30+ minutes
100. K. Love - Versatile big man should complement Jefferson very well
101. G. Arenas - Projected to play 45-50 games; Multiple knee surgeries a huge concern
102. M. Ginobli - Projected to play 45-50 games this season
103. M. Ellis - Projected to play 50 games this season
104. D. Gooden - Great rebounder but doesn't give you much more
105. A. Parker - Pretty solid all-around performer
106. J. Nelson - Needs to step it up and find a way to avoid nagging injuries
107. D. Stephenson - Numbers will take a huge hit once Arenas is back
108. R. Brewer - Getting better every year; Needs to improve consistency
109. L. Scola - Will likely give you a double-double every night
110. S. O'Neal - The Big Cactus should still give you 14 pts, 8 rbs and 1 blk per game
111. U. Haslem - Despite Beasley's presence, Haslem will still get plenty of minutes
112. A. Harrington - You never know with Nellie; Versatile player will likely be up and down
113. S. Battier - Likely to have reduced role but does a lot of things well
114. J. Noah - Should start all year and be a presence on both sides of the court
115. B. Diaw - Talent still there, but is definitely an enigma; Consistency an issue
116. T. Murphy - Always seems to be injured but puts up decent numbers when able to play
117. F. Garcia - Now that Artest is gone, Garcia should fill it up on a regular basis
118. M. Pietrus - If he can stay healthy, he'll fit in well with Howard, Lewis and Turkoglu
119. C. Duhon - Should excel with the opportunity to run D'Antoni's system
120. C. Villanueva - Wouldn't surprise me if he averages 19 pts/8 rbs or 6 pts/4 rbs; A roll of the dice...
TEAMS TO AVOID
1) Oklahoma City Thunder - Other than Durant, it's just a bunch of flotsam and jetsam. P.J. Carlisimo's penchant for giving ten guys 5-25 minutes of playing time a night certainly doesn't help matters. Rowdy home crowds may help generate twenty victories, but the Thunder probably won't win more than five games all year on the road.
2) Memphis Grizzlies - If it's not Carlisimo, Marc Iavaroni is likely the first coach to be fired this season. There is some decent young talent on the roster, but the head coach doesn't seem to have any idea how to use it. Other than Gay & Mayo it's simply a crapshoot down in Tennessee.
3) Golden State Warriors - In year's past I loved drafting Warriors. However, this season I'm a little leery that Nellie could be in full experimental mode. Until Monta returns to the lineup, Jackson and Maggette are probably the only guys guaranteed of getting major minutes every game. Established players like Biedrins and Harrington will likely play 35 minutes one game and 15 the next.
TEAMS ON THE RISE
1) Los Angeles Clippers - Brand bolting for Philly is definitely not the end of the world. I love the talent on this team and think there will be at least five big-time fantasy performers (Baron, Kaman, Camby, Thornton, and Ricky Davis). If Baron, Kaman and Camby each play 70 games then the Clippers could go 52-30.
2) Chicago Bulls - It can't get any worse and there is way too much talent to be as pitiful as the team was last season. There are nine guys who could be drafted and at least a half dozen of them will be major contributors this season. If the Bulls don't get forty-eight wins and a 5th seed then it's time to clean house.
3) Miami Heat - The team Pat Riley put on the court during the final month of last season was a disgrace. However, his reward was Beasley and the team should win another thirty games this year. I like a number of the other moves Riley made in the off-season and if D Wade can stay healthy this team will be a 4th seed come playoff time.


A couple recent photos of the odds on favorite to win this season of DWTS...
Here is the latest edition of the SDSG's Love & Importance List - The Baker's Dozen...
1) My kids and everything associated with being a father
2) Wife/BATWOTSDSG and everything associated with being a devoted husband
3) Mother, Father, Brothers, and other family members
4) Drafting fantasy basketball team each year with partner A. Garfunkel
5) Constructing possible NBA trades
6) Evaluating NBA trades that actually take place
7) Writing this blog
8) Playing sports
9) Watching basketball, football and other sports
10) Watching Tina Fey impersonate Sarah Palin
11) Reading - "anything and everything put in front of me"
12) Watching movies
13) Beating Rosey in Texas Hold 'Em heads up (currently on a two match winning streak)


Do I have a plagarism lawsuit on my hands?
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Say what? I'm just trying to help the guys in my fantasy league stay within 5-10 points of me this year (as well as helping other people all over the world win their respective leagues). If I'm not mistaken, I beat the last place team by over 40 points.
I need a challenge and will be doing my best to help everybody out this season. I'm an altruisitc guy...it's as simple as that.
-SDSG
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I'm always interested in how poker players describe themselves. Two questions: (1) would you describe yourself as a good player or a bad player. (2) have you more frequently won or lost money in the last 12 months.
I find that people have a tendency to say that they are good players, but when they really think about it, they lose more than they win. Usually, it's attributable to a run of bad cards or bad luck, which is how they still rationalize that they are good players. How do you answer these questions about yourself?
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Excellent comment and my response concerning poker will apply to fantasy sports leagues as well. I would say that I'm a good poker player who uses a very intuitive style. Because of this style, there are periods when I frequently win and also stretches when I lose. For example, a couple years ago I ended up winning money eight consecutive evenings over a four month span. Was some luck involved? Sure. However, I believe the confidence that I was feeling at that time contributed greatly to the run of success.
I'm going to ignore the second question and instead talk about how I'm a reformer, maverick and have a great deal of executive experience. Actually, I really haven't played more than six or seven times during the past year and I'd have to say that I'm slightly in the red. Is luck involved? Absolutely, but that isn't the reason why I'm down.
As I think I've mentioned before, luck is a primary factor in whether or not a fantasy football team is successful. Conversely, despite what many people claim (and you know who you are), luck does not play a significant role in the success of a team in fantasy basketball. Knowledge and the ability to evaluate talent are the overwhelming success factors in fantasy basketball. Unless a perfect storm occurs (majority of players on another team avoid injury and have career years) then the most knowledgable and most astute manager of talent will prevail.
-SDSG
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